As the race for the 2024 December elections gets closer, a survey by Global InfoAnalytics indicates that John Dramani Mahama (JDM), the National Democratic Congress (NDC) flagbearer, holds a commanding lead over the New Patriotic Party’s (NPP) Vice President, Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia (DMB).

The poll, reported by myjoyonline, shows Mahama with the support of 51.1% of loyal voters, while Bawumia follows with 37.3%. Independent candidates Alan Kwadwo Kyeremanten (AKK) and Nana Kwame Bediako (NKB) account for 4.1% and 6.2% of the vote, respectively, with the remaining candidates capturing 1.3%.

Meanwhile, 38% of non-voters are classified as floating voters, and 39% refused to reveal their political affiliations, creating a significant hurdle for the NPP. Among undecided voters, Mahama leads Bawumia by a wide margin of 31 points (54% to 23%) and holds an 18-point advantage among those who withhold their party preferences.

Interestingly, Mahama has also gained momentum among new voters, now leading Bawumia 46% to 38%, a marked shift from their tie in the July 2024 poll. Conversely, Bawumia’s support from Muslim voters, a critical base for his campaign, has dropped by almost 4% since July.

The survey highlights that while 70% of President Nana Akufo-Addo’s 2020 voters still back Bawumia, 19% have switched allegiance to Mahama. Key regions such as Greater Accra and Central have seen 20% and 37% of NPP voters from 2020 defect to Mahama. Regionally, Mahama leads in 12 regions, including Bono, while Bawumia holds sway in Ashanti, Eastern, Ahafo, and North East regions.